Appendix D: The Data, in Easy-To-Understand Charts

The Story of Prop 8, Concisely Told in Graphical Time Lines

This Appendix uses graphs and charts to illustrate shifts in public opinion during the Prop 8 campaign. In a few cases, it also uses charts to demonstrate changes that occur in the larger political environment, such as in earned media coverage, in the final six weeks of the campaign.

At a glance, each uses the data to illuminate a trend. All together, the charts communicate the gestalt—the big picture—and reveal the relationship between key campaign events and the way voters responded to them.

The charts remedy a potential deficiency of the rest of the report, its length. In this section, the same important ideas are shared, shorn of some detail and text. The result: a clear picture of the largest events that affected the fortunes of No on 8.

The tables and graphs in this appendix are similar to those throughout the report, but here they are larger and easier to read.

Most charts and graphs in this Appendix use data collected by the two polling firms hired by the No on 8 campaign: Lake Research and David Binder Research. Lake Research polled for a longer period of time, from May through October 30, and it polled more frequently. David Binder Research first polled for No on 8 September 2–4, and then returned to do daily tracking only toward the very end of the campaign.

In addition, some charts draw upon polling done by respected statewide and national polling firms that polled on Prop 8, including the Public Policy Institute of California (PPIC) and the Field Poll, though their surveys were at much more sporadic intervals than either of the two firms commissioned by the campaign.

Finally, a few charts present data that does not come from polling at all. For example, data gleaned from targeted searches of the Google News Archive measure trends and help reveal trends in earned media coverage of the campaign.

The tables and graphs below are grouped by poll question or topic. For example, one of Lake Research’s questions, the Standard Horse Race, is presented for all voters, and then separately for several subgroups of voters.

Where possible, both tables and graphs are presented for all data sets. A few paragraphs of text before the graphs (and text boxes superimposed on the graphs) describe the source of the data, its relevance, conclusions this report draws from the data, and any deficiencies in the data. In addition, a summarized chronology of events is below each chart to provide context.


 

Top Charts: The Most Revelatory Parts of This Appendix, In One Place

Throughout most of this appendix, tables and graphs are grouped together by topic. Here, however, the charts which tell the most impactful stories in the simplest ways are presented together. This way, you don’t have to go digging through charts which are often more complex and not as easily decipherable to find the most compelling pieces of data.


 






Lake Research’s Standard Horse Race Question

Poll Start

Poll End

All Voters

Y

N

U

19-May

27-May

50

42

8

7-Jul

13-Jul

58

35

6

11-Aug

17-Aug

57

37

6

11-Aug

17-Aug

51

42

6

8-Sep

11-Sep

44

47

8

22-Sep

24-Sep

44

45

11

29-Sep

2-Oct

47

43

10

5-Oct

7-Oct

45

36

19

6-Oct

8-Oct

46

38

16

7-Oct

9-Oct

49

39

12

8-Oct

11-Oct

49

40

10

9-Oct

12-Oct

50

39

11

11-Oct

13-Oct

50

38

12

12-Oct

14-Oct

50

39

11

13-Oct

15-Oct

51

39

10

14-Oct

16-Oct

51

39

9

15-Oct

18-Oct

51

39

10

16-Oct

19-Oct

51

38

11

18-Oct

20-Oct

52

38

11

19-Oct

21-Oct

51

37

11

20-Oct

22-Oct

52

37

11

21-Oct

23-Oct

51

40

9

22-Oct

25-Oct

52

40

8

23-Oct

26-Oct

50

42

8

25-Oct

27-Oct

50

41

8

26-Oct

28-Oct

50

41

10

27-Oct

29-Oct

50

41

9

28-Oct

30-Oct

49

41

10

Lake Research was the main polling firm used by the No on 8 campaign. Lake conducted benchmark polls—longer polls that asked fifteen to thirty minutes of questions—in May, July, August, and September. Each took place over a week and surveyed around 800 voters. On September 22, Lake began conducting much shorter tracking polls. The results of the tracking polls, taken daily, were released in three-day rolling averages, a standard practice: numbers from three concurrent days were combined, both to provide a larger and more reliable sample size (around 1,000) and to average out potentially misleading day-to-day fluctuations and more reliably show trends.

The No on 8 campaign used Lake’s polls to test both sides’ expected campaign messages, to gain some idea of what voters were hearing about the campaign, and to ascertain in as much depth as possible what voters thought about same-sex marriage and the ballot measure. In addition, Lake gathered extensive information about survey participants, including gender, race, party affiliation, and other demographics. Lake also intentionally oversampled Latino voters. Oversampling compensates for the fact that Latino voters do not comprise a large enough proportion of likely voters to be broken down further and still have a reliable sample size to detect trends among subgroups of Latino voters. By oversampling, Lake intentionally polled more Latino voters than would be present in a random sample, obtaining a large enough Latino sample to permit more sophisticated and detailed analysis of Latino voters.

The Standard Horse Race question referred to here and throughout the Report is Lake’s standard tracking question using the Prop 8 ballot language. The question reads:

Proposition 8 on the November ballot is an Initiative Constitutional Amendment titled, “Eliminates Rights of Same-Sex Couples to Marry.” It changes the California Constitution to eliminate the right of same-sex couples to marry. It provides that only marriage between a man and a woman is valid or recognized in California. The fiscal impact over the next few years is potential revenue loss, mainly sales taxes, totaling in the several tens of millions of dollars, to state and local governments. In the long run, there is likely to be little fiscal impact on state and local governments. If the election were today, would you vote yes or no on Proposition 8?

[IF YES/NO] Do you feel that way strongly or not-so-strongly?

[IF UNDECIDED] Well, if you had to decide today, would you lean toward voting yes or would you lean toward voting no?

This Appendix first examines the Standard Horse Race response from all voters surveyed. Responses to the Standard Horse Race question were also broken down by gender and race (presented later). All results are located on a time line to show the results in relationship to campaign events. As mentioned elsewhere, the main focus of both sides was paid media, and so paid media is the focus of the time line.

There are two factors that keep the Standard Horse Race question from being a completely reliable source of data about voters’ opinions on the issue of same-sex marriage. The first and most important is voter confusion: voters’ intentions as to whether they wished to allow or ban same-sex marriage often differed from their reported yes or no on Prop 8 reponse to the Standard Horse Race question. The Standard Horse Race question therefore combines and reflects three separate trends: (1) how voters plan to cast their vote on Prop 8; (2) fluctuating levels of voter confusion on Prop 8; and (3) whether voters support or oppose same-sex marriage.

Another limitation of the Standard Horse Race question is the grouping of undecided, refused, and don’t know responses in one category. This is discussed after the following graphs in the section entitled “Lake Research’s Standard Horse Race for Voters Yet to Vote.”

 































Lake Research’s Standard Horse Race for Voters Yet to Vote

Lake Research broke down the responses to its Standard Horse Race question in different ways, depending upon the kind of voter responding. Prior to October 6, all voters were “yet to vote,” as absentee voting had not started. During this period, all voters answering the Standard Horse Race question were broken down into 8 categories:

Yes, Strongly

Yes, Not So Strongly

Undecided, Lean Yes

Undecided

Undecided, Lean No

No, Not So Strongly

No, Strongly

Refused

These were consolidated into four categories when sample size was low:

Detailed Categories

}

Condensed Categories

Yes, Strongly

Yes, Not So Strongly

Undecided, Lean Yes

}

Yes

No, Strongly

No, Not So Strongly

Undecided, Lean No

}

No

Undecided

Refused

}

Undecided/Don’t Know/Refused

Undecided

Undecided, Lean Yes

Undecided, Lean No

}

Undecided with Leaners

Once early voting started, the following categories were used at different times to voters’ answers to the Standard Horse Race question.

Standard Horse Race Voters

Categories Used

Already Voted or Early Proposition 8 Ballot Vote

Condensed Categories

Yet to Vote or Probable Proposition 8 Ballot Vote

Detailed Categories

Condensed Categories

Combined or Combined Proposition 8 Ballot Vote

Condensed Categories

The vast majority of the charts in this report use the Combined Proposition 8 Ballot Vote, and therefore use the condensed categories and include those who have Already Voted. This allows us to have consistency between the Standard Horse Race and Be Clear questions, and to show the largest sample sizes available for the Standard Horse Race.

The table below, however, displays all eight categories in the Yet to Vote Standard Horse Race question, and the graphs illustrate the data. It was essential to provide this information in this much detail because this data set shows that the undecided and refused voters, who are combined in the condensed categories, actually show strikingly different trends, especially in early October. At that time, a spike in the undecided/refused number turns out to be entirely due to refusal to answer the question and not to an increase in the number of undecided voters. At the same time, No on 8’s softest supporters—those who described themselves as undecided but leaning toward No—were also cut in half.

 


Lake’s Standard Horserace for Voters Yet To Vote, Showing Degree of Vote Certainty

Poll Start

Poll End

Yes Strongly

Yes Not Strongly

Undecided Lean Yes

Undecided

Undecided Lean No

No Not Strongly

No Strongly

Refused

19-May

27-May

43

4

2

8

2

6

34

0

7-Jul

13-Jul

50

5

3

6

2

4

29

1

11-Aug

17-Aug

50

4

3

6

2

4

31

1

11-Aug

17-Aug

45

5

2

6

3

4

34

1

7-Sep

11-Sep

37

5

2

8

5

6

37

1

22-Sep

24-Sep

38

3

2

11

3

5

37

0

29-Sep

2-Oct

41

3

3

10

6

4

33

1

5-Oct

7-Oct

39

5

3

9

2

4

32

6

6-Oct

8-Oct

41

4

2

9

3

4

33

4

7-Oct

9-Oct

42

5

2

9

3

5

33

2

8-Oct

11-Oct

43

3

2

9

3

4

34

2

9-Oct

12-Oct

43

3

2

10

3

4

33

1

11-Oct

13-Oct

44

3

3

10

3

3

33

1

12-Oct

14-Oct

43

3

3

10

3

4

33

0

13-Oct

15-Oct

44

4

3

9

3

4

32

1

14-Oct

16-Oct

44

4

3

7

3

4

32

2

15-Oct

18-Oct

45

5

2

8

3

4

31

2

16-Oct

19-Oct

46

3

2

9

2

3

32

2

18-Oct

20-Oct

47

3

2

9

2

3

32

2

19-Oct

21-Oct

47

3

2

9

2

4

31

2

20-Oct

22-Oct

47

3

2

9

4

4

30

2

21-Oct

23-Oct

46

3

2

8

5

4

31

1

22-Oct

25-Oct

48

3

3

7

5

3

32

1

23-Oct

26-Oct

46

3

3

7

4

3

33

1

25-Oct

27-Oct

45

3

2

7

3

4

34

2

26-Oct

28-Oct

43

3

2

7

3

3

36

2

27-Oct

29-Oct

44

2

2

8

3

3

36

1

28-Oct

30-Oct

43

1

3

9

3

2

37

2

 

This data is most easily comprehensible when seen on the graph below.



Lake Research’s Be Clear Question

Poll Start

Poll End

All Voters

Y

N

U

19-May

27-May

47

44

8

7-Jul

13-Jul

54

38

7

11-Aug

17-Aug

48

42

10

8-Sep

11-Sep

46

43

11

22-Sep

24-Sep

47

42

11

29-Sep

2-Oct

47

42

10

5-Oct

7-Oct

48

42

10

6-Oct

8-Oct

48

42

10

7-Oct

9-Oct

49

41

10

8-Oct

11-Oct

49

41

10

9-Oct

12-Oct

48

42

10

11-Oct

13-Oct

49

41

10

12-Oct

14-Oct

49

41

10

13-Oct

15-Oct

49

41

10

14-Oct

16-Oct

51

40

9

15-Oct

18-Oct

50

40

10

16-Oct

19-Oct

51

38

11

18-Oct

20-Oct

52

37

11

19-Oct

21-Oct

52

36

12

20-Oct

22-Oct

51

36

13

21-Oct

23-Oct

50

36

14

22-Oct

25-Oct

51

36

13

23-Oct

26-Oct

51

37

12

25-Oct

27-Oct

50

38

12

26-Oct

28-Oct

51

37

10

27-Oct

29-Oct

51

39

10

28-Oct

30-Oct

52

39

10

After asking the Standard Horse Race question—using the actual ballot language—Lake Research asked a question to clarify the voter’s actual position on the issue of same-sex marriage. Lake asked:

Just to be clear, is your vote to eliminate marriage for gay and lesbian couples in the state of California or NOT to eliminate marriage for gay or lesbian couples in the state of California?

 

This gave voters a chance to clarify their intention, whether they answered the Standard Horse Race question yes or no. In plain language, this much shorter, clearer question asked voters directly whether they preferred to “eliminate” or “not eliminate” same-sex marriage. This question therefore helped illuminate any voter confusion that might have resulted, eg, from the fact that those opposed to same-sex marriage had to vote “yes on 8 to achieve their policy objection; and that those in favor or same-sex marriage had to vote no.

When the “Be Clear” question is displayed in a table in this appendix, the “Eliminate,” “Don’t Eliminate” and “Undecided” responses are represented as “Y,” “N,” and “U” respectively, since “Eliminate” corresponds with voting “Yes” on the ban. Where space permits—on graphs, for example—the categories are written out in full.

For a full discussion of the differences between the Standard Horse Race question and the Be Clear question, see Finding 2.

 




































































Using Lake Research Data to Analyze Voter Confusion

With its Standard Horse Race and Be Clear clarification questions, Lake Research created a set of data that helps show how ballot confusion affected Prop 8. Lake Research looked at voters who had responded to the Standard Horse Race and the Be Clear questions, excluding undecided voters and refusals. The result was four categories:

Position on Marriage

Prop 8 Vote Intent

Wrong-Way or Right-Way?

Pro–Same-Sex Marriage

No on 8

Right-Way

Pro—Same-Sex Marriage

Yes on 8

Wrong-Way

Anti–Same-Sex Marriage

Yes on 8

Right-Way

Anti–Same-Sex Marriage

No on 8

Wrong-Way

 

The data is graphed below in four different ways. The first two graphs show Yes on 8 and No on 8 voters, broken down into right-way and wrong-way voters. The last two graphs show voters who want to eliminate and not eliminate same-sex marriage respectively, again broken down into Yes on 8 and No on 8 voters.

The prevalence of each of these categories made it possible to calculate how much wrong-way voting occurred on each side throughout the campaign, and how much the final vote was affected by wrong-way voting and ballot confusion.


Lake’s Wrong-Way Voting Data

Poll Start

Poll End

Anti–Same-Sex Marriage, Voting No

Pro–Same-Sex Marriage, Voting Yes

Anti–Same-Sex Marriage, Voting Yes

Pro–Same-Sex Marriage, Voting No

19-May

27-May

2

4

20

18

7-Jul

13-Jul

3

6

50

30

11-Aug

17-Aug

4

8

44

32

22-Sep

24-Sep

9

7

35

35

29-Sep

2-Oct

6

5

40

36

5-Oct

7-Oct

6

8

35

30

6-Oct

8-Oct

6

7

37

31

7-Oct

9-Oct

5

7

40

33

8-Oct

11-Oct

5

6

42

34

9-Oct

12-Oct

4

6

42

34

11-Oct

13-Oct

5

6

42

32

12-Oct

14-Oct

5

7

42

32

13-Oct

15-Oct

5

6

42

32

14-Oct

16-Oct

6

6

42

32

15-Oct

18-Oct

5

5

43

32

16-Oct

19-Oct

5

4

44

31

18-Oct

20-Oct

4

3

46

32

20-Oct

22-Oct

4

4

45

30

21-Oct

23-Oct

5

4

44

30

22-Oct

25-Oct

5

4

45

31

23-Oct

26-Oct

5

4

43

32

25-Oct

27-Oct

5

4

43

32

26-Oct

28-Oct

6

4

42

32

27-Oct

29-Oct

6

4

43

34

28-Oct

30-Oct

6

4

43

34

 

These numbers are represented in the graphs in this section, because they most clearly represent how much right- and wrong-way voters comprised Yes and No on 8’s support over time in the campaign; and how much right- and wrong-way voters comprised supporters and opponents of same-sex marriage.

These figures were calculated from the raw data in the table below.


Lake’s Raw Data Used to Calculate Wrong-Way Voting Numbers

Poll Start

Poll End

Anti–Same-Sex Marriage

Pro–Same-Sex Marriage

% of Anti Voting Wrong-Way

% of Pro Voting Wrong-Way

Yes on 8 Voters

No on 8 Voters

19-May

27-May

22

22

9.1

18.2

24

20

7-Jul

13-Jul

53

36

5.7

16.7

56

33

11-Aug

17-Aug

48

40

8.3

20

52

36

22-Sep

24-Sep

44

42

20.5

16.7

42

44

29-Sep

2-Oct

46

41

13

12.2

45

42

5-Oct

7-Oct

41

38

14.6

21.1

43

36

6-Oct

8-Oct

43

38

14

18.4

44

37

7-Oct

9-Oct

45

40

11.1

17.5

47

38

8-Oct

11-Oct

47

40

10.6

15

48

39

9-Oct

12-Oct

46

40

8.7

15

48

38

11-Oct

13-Oct

47

38

10.6

15.8

48

37

12-Oct

14-Oct

47

39

10.6

17.9

49

37

13-Oct

15-Oct

47

38

10.6

15.8

48

37

14-Oct

16-Oct

48

38

12.5

15.8

48

38

15-Oct

18-Oct

48

37

10.4

13.5

48

37

16-Oct

19-Oct

49

35

10.2

11.4

48

36

18-Oct

20-Oct

50

35

8

8.6

49

36

20-Oct

22-Oct

49

34

8.2

11.8

49

34

21-Oct

23-Oct

49

34

10.2

11.8

48

35

22-Oct

25-Oct

50

35

10

11.4

49

36

23-Oct

26-Oct

48

36

10.4

11.1

47

37

25-Oct

27-Oct

48

36

10.4

11.1

47

37

26-Oct

28-Oct

48

36

12.5

11.1

46

38

27-Oct

29-Oct

49

38

12.2

10.5

47

40

28-Oct

30-Oct

49

38

12.2

10.5

47

40

 

The data in this table is taken from Lake’s polling, and was used to calculate wrong-way voting numbers. The Yes and No on 8 Voters columns show the Standard Horse Race and the Anti and ProSame-Sex Marriage columns show the “Be Clear” question, but only for voters who answered both questions. The “% of Anti Voting Wrong-Way” and “% of Pro Voting Wrong-Way” columns show the percentage of people for each side whose answer to the Standard Horserace differed from their stated vote intention in the “Be Clear” question.

This data was used to calculate the data in the preceding table, which is displayed in the graphs below.

 


Lake Research’s Standard Horse Race and “Be Clear” Question for Men and Women

Lake Research collected comprehensive demographic data, and broke down the results of the Standard Horse Race question by several of these factors. Here, the Standard Horse Race question is broken down by gender. This data shows that men and women reacted quite differently to various campaign events and showed vastly different levels of support for same-sex marriage at different times during the campaign. These trends within voter subgroups are otherwise obscured in the Standard Horse Race chart for all voters.

The data is presented below in two different ways. The first two graphs compare the Standard Horse Race and the Be Clear questions for men and women separately. Following those, the next two charts compare men and women side-by-side (on the same chart) for both the Standard Horse Race and the Be Clear questions.

For an analysis and discussion of this data, see Finding 1.


 

Lake’s Polling Broken Down by Gender

Poll Start

Poll End

Standard Horse Race

“Be Clear” Question

Men

Women

Men

Women

Y

N

U

Y

N

U

Y

N

U

Y

N

U

22-Sep

24-Sep

43

43

14

44

47

8

48

39

12

44

46

10

29-Sep

2-Oct

53

36

11

42

49

9

54

35

11

40

49

11

5-Oct

7-Oct

48

35

17

41

38

21

50

39

11

44

46

10

6-Oct

8-Oct

52

35

14

41

42

18

51

39

11

46

45

10

7-Oct

9-Oct

54

35

11

44

43

12

50

39

11

45

45

10

8-Oct

11-Oct

55

34

10

44

46

10

53

37

10

45

45

10

9-Oct

12-Oct

54

34

12

45

44

10

53

37

10

44

47

9

11-Oct

13-Oct

53

35

11

46

41

12

52

38

10

46

44

11

12-Oct

14-Oct

52

37

11

49

40

11

51

39

10

47

43

10

13-Oct

15-Oct

53

38

10

49

40

11

51

39

10

48

42

10

14-Oct

16-Oct

53

38

9

50

41

9

53

38

9

49

42

9

15-Oct

18-Oct

54

36

10

49

41

11

53

37

9

47

43

10

16-Oct

19-Oct

54

35

11

49

40

11

54

36

11

48

40

11

18-Oct

20-Oct

55

35

10

49

40

11

55

35

10

49

39

12

19-Oct

21-Oct

55

34

11

48

40

11

53

35

11

50

37

13

20-Oct

22-Oct

54

36

9

50

38

12

53

35

12

49

37

14

21-Oct

23-Oct

52

38

10

50

41

9

52

34

14

49

38

13

22-Oct

25-Oct

53

39

8

51

41

8

53

33

14

49

39

13

23-Oct

26-Oct

52

40

8

49

43

8

53

34

13

48

40

12

25-Oct

27-Oct

53

39

7

48

43

9

53

35

12

47

40

12

26-Oct

28-Oct

52

40

8

48

41

11

53

37

10

49

38

13

27-Oct

29-Oct

52

41

7

49

42

10

53

37

10

49

40

11

28-Oct

30-Oct

50

41

10

49

42

10

52

38

9

51

39

10

 








































This data is displayed in graphs below, for ease of viewing.

 




Lake’s Standard Horse Race for Men and Women, Broken Down by College Attendance

Poll Start

Poll End

College Men

Non-College Men

College Women

Non-College Women

Y

N

U

Y

N

U

Y

N

U

Y

N

U

22-Sep

24-Sep

36

52

12

48

36

15

40

51

8

48

46

7

29-Sep

2-Oct

53

41

7

54

30

16

34

58

8

48

41

11

5-Oct

7-Oct

42

43

15

55

27

18

40

43

17

42

43

25

6-Oct

8-Oct

48

42

10

55

28

17

38

48

14

43

36

20

7-Oct

9-Oct

51

41

9

58

29

12

40

51

9

47

38

15

8-Oct

11-Oct

53

40

7

58

29

12

38

53

9

47

42

11

9-Oct

12-Oct

54

37

9

54

32

14

39

50

11

48

42

10

11-Oct

13-Oct

51

40

9

54

32

13

44

44

12

54

32

14

12-Oct

14-Oct

49

42

9

55

33

12

48

42

10

55

33

12

13-Oct

15-Oct

45

45

10

61

31

9

49

44

8

61

31

9

14-Oct

16-Oct

45

45

10

60

31

9

48

45

7

60

31

9

15-Oct

18-Oct

50

39

11

57

34

10

44

47

9

52

36

12

16-Oct

19-Oct

53

36

10

55

34

12

41

48

11

55

34

11

18-Oct

20-Oct

54

35

11

56

34

10

37

51

12

57

32

11

19-Oct

21-Oct

52

38

10

58

31

11

37

50

13

57

33

10

20-Oct

22-Oct

49

42

9

59

32

9

42

45

13

56

34

10

21-Oct

23-Oct

52

41

8

53

36

11

46

46

9

54

37

9

22-Oct

25-Oct

52

42

7

54

38

8

47

46

6

55

36

9

23-Oct

26-Oct

50

42

8

53

39

8

46

48

6

52

38

10

25-Oct

27-Oct

47

45

8

58

35

7

46

48

6

49

39

12

26-Oct

28-Oct

46

45

8

55

37

8

46

45

9

49

38

13

27-Oct

29-Oct

49

45

6

54

37

9

46

47

8

51

38

11

28-Oct

30-Oct

46

47

7

53

35

12

43

48

10

54

36

9

 







































This data is presented and discussed in the charts below.


 Lake’s “Be Clear” Question for Men and Women, Broken Down by College Attendance

Poll Start

Poll End

College Men

Non-College Men

College Women

Non-College Women

Y

N

U

Y

N

U

Y

N

U

Y

N

U

22-Sep

24-Sep

41

49

10

56

30

14

40

49

11

48

43

9

29-Sep

2-Oct

53

39

8

55

29

15

34

56

10

45

43

11

5-Oct

7-Oct

45

46

9

55

32

12

41

52

7

47

41

12

6-Oct

8-Oct

46

48

7

56

31

14

42

51

6

49

39

12

7-Oct

9-Oct

44

46

10

57

32

11

41

53

7

49

40

11

8-Oct

11-Oct

47

44

9

59

31

11

40

51

9

48

41

10

9-Oct

12-Oct

50

40

10

56

34

11

36

53

11

48

44

8

11-Oct

13-Oct

47

44

9

56

33

11

43

47

10

47

42

10

12-Oct

14-Oct

45

46

9

55

33

11

43

47

10

49

42

9

13-Oct

15-Oct

42

48

10

60

31

9

45

48

7

49

39

12

14-Oct

16-Oct

47

45

8

58

32

10

44

50

6

52

38

10

15-Oct

18-Oct

51

39

9

55

35

9

40

53

7

52

37

12

16-Oct

19-Oct

55

35

10

53

36

11

42

49

9

53

34

13

18-Oct

20-Oct

55

34

11

55

36

9

38

50

12

57

31

12

19-Oct

21-Oct

52

36

11

54

35

11

41

46

13

57

29

14

20-Oct

22-Oct

49

38

13

56

33

11

41

45

14

56

30

14

21-Oct

23-Oct

51

35

14

54

33

13

43

45

12

53

32

15

22-Oct

25-Oct

51

34

15

56

31

13

43

47

10

53

33

14

23-Oct

26-Oct

51

37

11

55

31

14

44

47

9

52

35

13

25-Oct

27-Oct

47

42

11

58

29

13

41

48

11

52

35

13

26-Oct

28-Oct

48

43

9

56

33

11

44

44

11

53

33

15

27-Oct

29-Oct

49

42

10

56

35

10

43

49

8

54

33

13

28-Oct

30-Oct

47

46

7

57

32

11

42

49

9

59

31

10

 







































This data is presented and discussed in the charts below.





 


David Binder Research’s Standard Horse Race

Poll Start

Poll End

ALL

Y

N

U

2-Sep

4-Sep

42

53

6

18-Oct

21-Oct

45

49

7

19-Oct

22-Oct

46

48

6

20-Oct

23-Oct

48

47

5

21-Oct

25-Oct

50

44

6

22-Oct

26-Oct

49

45

6

23-Oct

27-Oct

47

47

6

25-Oct

28-Oct

47

48

5

26-Oct

29-Oct

48

46

6

27-Oct

30-Oct

49

46

6

28-Oct

31-Oct

48

47

5

29-Oct

1-Nov

47

50

4

30-Oct

2-Nov

47

50

3

1-Nov

3-Nov

47

49

4

18-Oct

28-Oct

48

44

6

18-Oct

3-Nov

47

47

5

David Binder Research conducted daily tracking polls for the No on 8 campaign from October 18 to November 3, the day before Election Day. Binder also conducted one benchmark poll on September 2–4. Binder’s daily tracking polls thus continued after Lake’s ended but started toward the end of the campaign.

In the form the Mentoring Project first received, Binder’s polling was not combined into a rolling average. In order to directly compare Binder’s polling to Lake’s, the Mentoring Project combined Binder’s polling into a rolling average, resulting in the numbers to the right.

Binder’s charts are most easily placed into context when viewed alongside Lake’s charts, as displayed below. Lake’s polls are featured more frequently throughout the report, and the graph below demonstrates why: David Binder Research simply polled for a shorter amount of time than Lake, and thus obtained less data. In addition, the time period during which Binder polled spanned less movement in voter opinion than the period of time when Binder did not poll.

 























Lake Research & David Binder Research: Latino Voters

Latino voters make up a significant part of California’s voting population; as a result, both the Yes and No on 8 campaigns specifically targeted Latino populations with targeted ad buys and media efforts.

Both Lake and Binder’s polls analyzed voter data by ethnicity and other demographic factors. Lake Research has data for Latino voters for both the Standard Horse Race and Be Clear questions. Where possible, both are presented on the same chart to ease comparison and to provide context. Data is also available from Lake’s polling on Latino voters by gender; this too is presented below. Lake’s breakouts of Latino voters by age, however, result in sample size so small that charts would not be useful for meaningful analysis, and so they are not included. The same difficulty prevented the development of charts on African-American and Asian voters. Regular or periodic oversampling of African-American and/or Asian voters in polling for future campaigns could eliminate this problem.

David Binder Research’s polling of Latino voters is presented alongside Lake’s Standard Horse Race question, again for context.

Some of the charts below illuminate trends for which there is no current explanation. For example, the Lake Standard Horse Race Latino vs White margins shows plunging margins— with No on 8 improving among Latino voters—from October 12 through 17. At the time of this writing, the author does not know why that occurred, what campaign event to which it might be linked, and why the trend then reversed itself.

For a full discussion of this data and its implications, see Finding 1.


 

Lake and Binder’s Standard Horse Race and Lake’s “Be Clear” Question for Latino Voters


Poll Start

Poll End

Lake Standard Horse Race, Latino Voters

Lake Standard Horse Race, White Voters

Lake Be Clear Question, Latino Voters

Binder Standard Horse Race, Latino Voters

Y

N

U

Y

N

U

Y

N

U

Y

N

U

19-May

27-May

59

35

6

47

45

8

51

42

7

 

 

 

7-Jul

13-Jul

65

26

7

57

37

5

62

33

5

 

 

 

11-Aug

17-Aug

63

34

1

54

38

8

56

33

11

 

 

 

11-Aug

17-Aug

47

44

7

51

42

7

 

 

 

 

 

 

8-Sep

11-Sep

38

47

15

47

46

6

 

 

 

 

 

 

22-Sep

24-Sep

51

38

11

40

49

10

49

38

12

 

 

 

29-Sep

2-Oct

46

37

16

46

45

8

45

38

16

 

 

 

5-Oct

7-Oct

50

27

22

43

39

18

55

36

9

 

 

 

6-Oct

8-Oct

49

29

22

45

42

13

54

36

10

 

 

 

7-Oct

9-Oct

50

35

14

49

41

10

53

39

8

 

 

 

8-Oct

11-Oct

52

37

11

48

42

10

53

38

9

 

 

 

9-Oct

12-Oct

54

36

10

48

41

11

53

38

10

 

 

 

11-Oct

13-Oct

59

27

14

48

41

11

58

31

11

 

 

 

12-Oct

14-Oct

56

29

15

50

42

9

57

32

11

 

 

 

13-Oct

15-Oct

53

30

17

51

41

8

58

28

14

 

 

 

14-Oct

16-Oct

50

35

16

53

40

7

57

30

13

 

 

 

15-Oct

18-Oct

45

41

15

52

39

9

50

36

14

 

 

 

16-Oct

19-Oct

49

39

12

52

39

9

50

37

13

 

 

 

18-Oct

20-Oct

51

39

11

51

39

10

50

38

12

 

 

 

19-Oct

21-Oct

56

33

11

50

40

10

58

30

12

 

 

 

20-Oct

22-Oct

54

36

11

52

39

9

58

28

14

 

 

 

21-Oct

23-Oct

54

37

10

50

42

8

56

30

14

 

 

 

22-Oct

25-Oct

55

36

9

52

42

6

51

36

13

52

43

6

23-Oct

26-Oct

57

35

8

48

45

7

56

34

10

52

42

7

25-Oct

27-Oct

55

36

9

48

44

7

56

32

12

53

41

6

26-Oct

28-Oct

51

39

10

47

44

9

59

30

11

50

43

7

27-Oct

29-Oct

50

42

8

50

42

7

55

36

9

50

41

8

28-Oct

30-Oct

49

41

10

50

41

9

56

35

9

48

44

9

28-Oct

31-Oct

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

51

43

8

29-Oct

1-Nov

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

50

47

4

30-Oct

2-Nov

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

49

48

4

1-Nov

3-Nov

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

50

47

4

 

This data is displayed in a variety of charts below.


 

Lake’s Standard Horserace for Latino Voters Broken Down by Age

Poll Start

Poll End

Lake Latino Standard Horse Race, <50

Lake Latino Standard Horse Race, 50+

Y

N

U

Y

N

U

19-May

27-May

56

38

6

65

30

5

7-Jul

13-Jul

 

 

 

 

 

 

11-Aug

17-Aug

 

 

 

 

 

 

11-Aug

17-Aug

 

 

 

 

 

 

8-Sep

11-Sep

34

51

15

 

 

 

22-Sep

24-Sep

48

40

11

53

37

11

29-Sep

2-Oct

43

38

18

54

37

10

5-Oct

7-Oct

49

30

21

53

23

24

6-Oct

8-Oct

48

31

21

52

25

23

7-Oct

9-Oct

47

39

13

59

26

15

8-Oct

11-Oct

48

41

11

61

29

10

9-Oct

12-Oct

48

44

8

66

22

12

11-Oct

13-Oct

54

32

14

67

19

14

12-Oct

14-Oct

51

34

15

65

20

28

13-Oct

15-Oct

48

33

19

62

26

12

14-Oct

16-Oct

46

36

18

58

31

11

15-Oct

18-Oct

41

41

18

54

39

8

16-Oct

19-Oct

43

41

16

59

39

6

18-Oct

20-Oct

44

43

12

63

30

7

19-Oct

21-Oct

51

38

11

65

26

9

20-Oct

22-Oct

49

41

10

63

25

12

21-Oct

23-Oct

49

40

11

62

30

8

22-Oct

25-Oct

53

37

10

58

34

8

23-Oct

26-Oct

57

35

8

55

37

8

25-Oct

27-Oct

55

36

9

52

37

11

26-Oct

28-Oct

52

41

7

46

36

18

27-Oct

29-Oct

51

42

7

44

40

16

28-Oct

30-Oct

51

42

7

44

40

16

 

This data is displayed in charts below; however, the sample size is low enough that extreme caution should be exercised when drawing conclusions.

 



 


 




Lake Research’s Polling on the “Thorons” ad

Poll Start

Poll End

Ad about parents wanting their gay daughter treated the same

Y

N

U

5-Oct

7-Oct

19

24

25

6-Oct

8-Oct

16

24

22

7-Oct

9-Oct

16

27

19

8-Oct

11-Oct

11

25

15

9-Oct

12-Oct

11

27

16

11-Oct

13-Oct

11

19

10

12-Oct

14-Oct

12

23

6

13-Oct

15-Oct

14

22

2

14-Oct

16-Oct

12

26

 

15-Oct

18-Oct

12

19

 

16-Oct

19-Oct

13

15

3

18-Oct

20-Oct

14

14

8

19-Oct

21-Oct

12

15

6

Lake’s polling allows us to analyze the effectiveness of the No on 8 campaign’s “Thorons” ad in two ways. (For a transcript and media buy information for this ad, see Appendix E) First, one set of questions gauged memorability. On some days, Lake Research asked open-ended questions about what voters remembered hearing from both the Yes and the No campaigns. Some people recalled seeing the “Thorons” ad. The question was phrased:

Have you seen or heard anything on television, in the mail, on the phone, in the newspaper, or online urging you to vote NO on Proposition 8?

What do you recall hearing or seeing about voting NO on Prop 8?

The table to the right shows the percentage of voters, broken down on the Standard Horse Race question into Yes, No, and Undecided, who recall seeing an “ad about parents wanting their gay daughter treated the same.” The graph of these answers is displayed above.

Second, a different set of questions specifically asked about persuasiveness. Lake asked two questions about this aspect of “Thorons”; they are displayed below. The first, with the same language on all dates listed, asked whether voters recalled an ad matching its description. The second tried to ascertain how “Thorons” affected people’s votes, and was asked in two different ways on different days.

The first day the “Thorons”-related questions were asked, they read together:

Let me ask you something else. Have you seen on television recently a commercial with two older Californians talking about their gay daughter and asking you to vote No on Proposition 8?

Yes/No/(Don’t know)

[If Yes] And did that make you feel more favorable or less favorable about same-sex marriage?

More favorable/Less favorable/(No difference)/(Don’t know)

 

On all other days Lake polled on the “Thorons” ad, the second question was different:

Have you seen on television recently a commercial with two older Californians talking about their gay daughter and asking you to vote No on Proposition 8?

Yes/No/(Don’t know)

[If Yes] And did that make you more or less likely to oppose Prop 8?

More likely/Less likely/(No difference)/(Don’t know)

 

The latter set frames the second question differently, not asking whether voters were persuaded on same-sex marriage, but rather if their view of the proposition itself was affected. This parallels the difference between the Standard Horse Race question and the Be Clear question. Though the one data point from the earlier set is not definitive, it shows a more pessimistic measurement of effectiveness for “Thorons” on the issue of same-sex marriage. The question asking about “Thorons” and voters’ decision how to vote on Prop 8 suggest some level of effectiveness.

In the tables and graphs below, the first question and the later questions are shown in the same charts. Answers for and against same-sex marriage are displayed in the same data series (more favorable to same-sex marriage with more likely to oppose Prop 8, etc.). This way, similar but nonidentical data sets can be compared and contrasted.

 


 

Lake Research’s Questions About the “Thorons” Ad.

Poll Start

Poll End

Have you seen on television recently a commercial with two older Californians talking about their gay daughter and asking you to vote No on Proposition 8?

All Voters

Yes on 8 Voters

No on 8 Voters

Undecided Voters

Y

N

DK

Y

N

DK

Y

N

DK

Y

N

DK

29-Sep

2-Oct

34

64

2

34

64

2

37

60

2

20

76

4

5-Oct

7-Oct

45

53

2

43

55

2

47

51

1

42

54

3

6-Oct

8-Oct

44

53

3

43

54

3

47

50

3

42

53

5

7-Oct

9-Oct

45

52

4

43

54

4

49

48

4

38

58

4

8-Oct

11-Oct

44

52

4

43

52

4

48

49

4

35

62

3

9-Oct

12-Oct

43

53

3

44

52

4

46

51

2

30

67

3

 

Poll Start

Poll End

Earlier wording: And did that make you feel more favorable or less favorable about same-sex marriage?

Later wording: And did that make you more or less likely to oppose Prop 8?

All

Yes on 8

No on 8

Undecided

More likely

Less likely

No diff.

DK

More likely

Less likely

No diff.

DK

More likely

Less likely

No diff.

DK

More likely

Less likely

No diff.

DK

29-Sep

2-Oct

17

18

62

2

6

32

59

2

30

7

62

2

7

7

82

4

5-Oct

7-Oct

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

6-Oct

8-Oct

23

13

59

4

18

17

61

4

32

10

55

3

7

8

70

15

7-Oct

9-Oct

22

10

65

3

17

11

69

3

28

11

59

1

15

5

68

12

8-Oct

11-Oct

21

9

67

3

16

10

71

3

28

8

63

2

12

5

68

16

9-Oct

12-Oct

19

7

72

2

14

8

77

1

27

6

66

1

12

5

73

10

 

The data presented in these tables is presented in the following graphs.

 




 




Lake Research Polling on Yes on 8’s Messaging

Lake Research never tested the opposition’s ads, once they were on the air, as thoroughly as they tested the “Thorons” ad, where they asked specific questions about the commercial and how it affected voters’ feelings about Prop 8. Lake did, however, ask open-ended questions about what voters saw and heard from the Yes on 8 campaign. The questions used the following wording:

10. Have you seen or heard anything on television, in the mail, on the phone, in the newspaper, or online urging you to vote YES on Proposition 8?

11. IF YES ABOVE IN Q10: What do you recall hearing or seeing about voting YES on Prop 8?

PROBE: Ask respondent to be as specific as possible.

 

The interviewer recorded each voter’s first answer to the question, and similar answers were grouped together (for instance, “Gavin Newsom,” or “an ad featuring the mayor of San Francisco,” or any other answer that referred to this particular Yes on 8 ad were put together). With this data, it is possible to get an idea of which Yes on 8 messages were at the forefront of voters’ minds at different points during the most competitive period of the campaign.


 

Lake Research’s Yes on 8 Message Frequencies for Certain Messages

Poll Start

Poll End

Gay marriage taught in schools / affecting children

Little girl with mom talking about gay marriage at school / a prince can marry a prince

Gavin Newsom / Mayor of San Francisco ad

Y

N

U

All

Y

N

U

All

Y

N

U

All

6-Oct

8-Oct

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

11

20

9

14

7-Oct

9-Oct

1

1

 

1

 

 

 

 

11

20

9

14

8-Oct

11-Oct

2

2

 

2

 

 

 

 

11

17

8

14

9-Oct

12-Oct

4

5

3

4

2

1

 

1

10

11

7

10

11-Oct

13-Oct

6

7

3

6

3

3

 

3

8

8

4

8

12-Oct

14-Oct

8

11

6

9

4

4

2

4

5

8

5

6

13-Oct

15-Oct

10

13

8

11

3

6

4

5

6

7

5

7

14-Oct

16-Oct

13

15

9

13

3

5

4

4

6

6

4

6

15-Oct

18-Oct

15

14

7

14

4

8

3

6

5

2

1

5

16-Oct

19-Oct

16

14

8

14

5

7

4

5

2

1

2

3

18-Oct

20-Oct

16

16

17

16

8

10

4

8

2

1

 

3

19-Oct

21-Oct

19

22

19

20

7

6

3

7

3

3

 

3

20-Oct

22-Oct

20

26

23

23

8

6

6

7

4

2

2

3

21-Oct

23-Oct

24

25

19

24

6

6

6

6

4

2

2

3

22-Oct

25-Oct

25

26

26

25

6

10

9

7

1

1

2

1

23-Oct

26-Oct

27

31

28

29

5

9

9

7

1

1

2

1

25-Oct

27-Oct

24

37

30

30

4

8

8

6

 

1

1

1

26-Oct

28-Oct

21

39

23

29

3

3

5

3

1

0

 

1

27-Oct

29-Oct

23

39

16

30

3

2

 

2

1

0

 

1

28-Oct

30-Oct

20

38

15

28

3

2

2

2

1

 

 

1

 

The information above is most easily understood in the charts on the next pages.

 



Lake Research’s Polling on Parents 

Parents were the obvious target of Yes on 8’s message that children would be taught about same-sex marriage in schools unless Prop 8 passed, a message which was spearheaded by Yes’s “Princes” ad and repeated over the course of the campaign in various forms. To examine how vulnerable this group of voters was to the anti-gay campaign’s messaging, this report examines a number of sets of data from Lake’s polling and elsewhere, to see how parents and other groups of voters actually reacted when the ads were broadcast.

Lake’s polling allows us to look at parents in a few different ways. Do determine parental status, Lake asked respondents “Do you have any children under the age of 18 living at home with you?” This simple question divides voters into two groups, which Lake refers to as “Parents” and “Childless”, but the question has one major limitation: parents with grown children or children living elsewhere are not included, and are indistinguishable both from young adults who do not have children and older voters who have remained childless. However, since we are specifically trying to examine the effects of the “Princes” ad and its surrounding message on the voters it ostensibly targetedparents with children in schoolLake’s data’s definition of “Parent” and “Childless” breaks voters up into two groups which are perfect for testing our hypothesis.

The first set of charts in this section examines both the Standard Horse Race and the “Be Clear” Question, detailed earlier in this appendix, for both of these categories: “Parents,” or respondents who have one or more children under 18 living at home; and “Childless Voters,” who have no children under 18 living at home. From here on in this appendix, when the terms “Parents” and “Childless” are used, they are used as short-hand to refer to the specific criteria Lake used to create this dataset.

Younger parents and Democratic and Independent voters were ostensibly more supportive of same-sex marriage, part of No on 8’s “base.” To learn about these voters’ vulnerability to the “kids” message, Lake Research ran additional crosstabs after the election, which gives data for the subset of the “Parents” group who are under 45 and identify as Democratic or Independent. This category is referred in short-hand as “Young Parents.”

In summary, the data indicate that “Parents”voters with a child under 18 living at homewere highly swayed by Yes on 8’s “kids” messaging, especially the Princes ad. Young arents were initially opposed to Prop 8, but showed as large a drop in support as parents at large, switching sides to support the ban

The tables and graphs below illustrate the data in further detail. For further discussion about the movement of parents, see Finding 1. For a discussion of the ads that were most effective in moving this group of voters, see Finding 2.


Lake’s Standard Horse Race for “Parents” and “Childless” Voters

Poll Start

Poll End

Child Under 18 Living At Home

No Child Under 18 Living At Home

Fathers

Mothers

Childless Men

Childless Women

Y

N

U

Y

N

U

Y

N

U

Y

N

U

Y

N

U

Y

N

U

8-Sep

11-Sep

50

42

8

42

50

8

55

37

8

46

46

8

46

47

7

42

47

11

22-Sep

24-Sep

41

46

13

44

46

10

41

43

17

41

43

17

43

45

12

46

47

7

29-Sep

2-Oct

49

42

9

46

43

11

56

35

9

42

50

8

51

37

12

42

49

9

5-Oct

7-Oct

46

36

18

45

36

19

55

30

15

37

42

21

46

37

17

43

36

21

6-Oct

8-Oct

46

38

17

47

38

15

55

41

13

36

44

20

50

36

13

43

40

17

7-Oct

9-Oct

50

38

13

49

40

11

60

29

11

39

46

15

51

37

11

47

42

12

8-Oct

11-Oct

49

40

12

49

41

10

61

27

12

38

52

11

53

38

9

46

44

10

9-Oct

12-Oct

49

40

11

49

39

11

60

29

12

40

50

10

51

37

12

47

42

11

11-Oct

13-Oct

50

38

12

49

39

12

59

30

11

43

44

13

51

39

11

48

40

12

12-Oct

14-Oct

53

37

11

50

39

11

56

35

8

50

38

13

50

39

11

49

40

11

13-Oct

15-Oct

54

35

11

50

40

10

57

32

10

50

38

12

51

40

9

49

41

10

14-Oct

16-Oct

55

35

10

50

41

9

59

32

9

51

38

11

51

39

10

49

42

8

15-Oct

18-Oct

54

35

11

49

40

10

58

31

11

50

39

11

52

38

10

47

42

11

16-Oct

19-Oct

56

32

12

49

40

11

60

28

12

53

36

11

52

38

10

46

43

11

18-Oct

20-Oct

55

32

12

49

40

10

58

29

13

53

36

11

54

38

9

46

43

12

19-Oct

21-Oct

57

32

12

49

40

11

60

29

11

53

35

12

53

37

10

46

43

11

20-Oct

22-Oct

56

34

10

50

39

11

60

32

8

53

35

12

52

38

10

49

40

11

21-Oct

23-Oct

54

39

8

50

40

10

55

38

7

52

39

9

51

38

11

50

41

9

22-Oct

25-Oct

55

39

6

50

41

9

57

37

6

54

41

5

51

41

8

50

41

9

23-Oct

26-Oct

54

40

6

49

42

9

55

37

8

54

42

4

51

41

8

48

43

10

25-Oct

27-Oct

57

36

7

47

44

9

61

30

9

53

41

6

50

43

7

45

44

11

26-Oct

28-Oct

55

36

8

47

43

10

58

34

7

53

38

9

49

43

8

45

44

12

27-Oct

29-Oct

57

37

6

47

44

10

64

33

3

52

40

8

48

43

9

45

44

10

28-Oct

30-Oct

55

38

7

46

43

11

61

33

6

50

41

8

45

43

11

47

43

10

 

Note that “Fathers” and “Mothers” are male and female voters who answered “Yes” to the question “Do you have any children under the age of 18 living at home with you?”

This data is displayed over the subsequent charts.

Lake’s “Be Clear” Question for “Parents” and “Childless” Voters

Poll Start

Poll End

Child Under 18 Living At Home

No Child Under 18 Living At Home

Fathers

Mothers

Childless Men

Childless Women

Y

N

U

Y

N

U

Y

N

U

Y

N

U

Y

N

U

Y

N

U

22-Sep

24-Sep

46

44

9

45

43

12

52

38

10

40

51

9

46

41

13

45

45

10

29-Sep

2-Oct

47

43

10

46

43

11

55

35

10

39

50

11

53

35

12

40

49

11

5-Oct

7-Oct

48

42

10

47

43

10

55

36

9

42

48

10

49

40

11

46

45

9

6-Oct

8-Oct

47

41

12

49

42

9

54

35

11

41

46

13

49

41

10

48

44

8

7-Oct

9-Oct

50

38

12

47